California's $8 Gallon Gas is COMING! Payback for EV Mandate

California's $8 Gallon Gas is COMING! Payback for EV Mandate

By Lauren Fix, The Car Coach

California drivers, brace for a wallet-busting shock: a 65-cent-per-gallon gas price hike could hit pumps by July 1, 2025, and it’s sparking outrage among lawmakers and consumers. Right after the federal EV mandate ends, California makes a foolish action. The state’s air quality regulators, appointed by Governor Gavin Newsom, updated their clean fuel program on November 8, 2024, to push cleaner energy and electric vehicles (EVs). But Senate Minority Leader Brian Jones calls it a hidden tax that could drive gas prices to a staggering $8 per gallon by 2026, squeezing working families and nudging them toward bankruptcy. With the federal EV mandate now repealed, California’s aggressive state policies, including its 2035 gas vehicle ban, influenced a dozen other states to followed its lead. With two oil refineries closing and a AAA survey showing 63% of Americans rejecting EVs, this raises a critical question: is California—and its follower states—sacrificing your paycheck for climate goals? Buckle up for a deep dive into this contentious plan, the fight to stop it, and what it means for drivers nationwide. This is a story you’ll want to share with every driver you know.

The Clean Fuel Plan: Green Dreams or a Costly Burden?

On November 8, 2024, regulators updated their clean fuel program to reduce the carbon intensity of transportation fuels by 30% by 2030 and 90% by 2045, aligning with California’s 2035 ban on new gas-powered vehicle sales. The program incentivizes low-carbon fuels like biofuels and EV charging while penalizing high-carbon producers, like gasoline refineries, who must buy credits to comply. Regulators claim this will spark $4 billion annually in clean transportation investments, saving $5 billion in healthcare costs by cutting air pollution, including 558 million metric tons of greenhouse gases by 2045.

But those penalties hit consumers at the pump. Estimates suggest the update could raise California gas prices by 47 to 65 cents per gallon starting July 1, 2025, with some projections reaching $0.85 by 2030 and $1.50 by 2035. A University of Pennsylvania report warns prices could hit $8 per gallon by 2026, worsened by the closure of two refineries, reducing California’s refining capacity by 8.3%. Jones, who filed a public records request to probe the regulators’ transparency, called it “blatant price gouging” by an “unelected board of wealthy bureaucrats” handpicked by the governor. With the federal EV mandate gone, Jones argues California’s push to make gas unaffordable is a state-level power grab to force drivers into EVs, overriding consumer choice.

Legislators Fight Back: A Freedom-Minded Stand for Transparency

Jones and other California Republicans are investigating the regulators’ process, alleging the governor’s office hid the hike’s true cost. The update, passed days after the 2024 election, ignored a petition with nearly 13,000 signatures urging a delay. Senator Marie Alvarado-Gil, co-author of a bill to repeal the amendments, said, “My rural and Central Valley constituents can’t afford any increase in gas prices. This was approved by an unelected board disconnected from everyday Californians.” The state’s administrative law office paused the hike in February 2025 on technical grounds, but regulators have 120 days to revise and resubmit, keeping the threat alive.

This reeks of government overreach. The regulators’ refusal to provide updated cost estimates—sticking to a 47-cent projection despite higher expert figures—erodes trust. Climate economist Danny Cullenward criticized their secrecy, saying it undermines public confidence. Jones argues the program is designed to “price gas so high that families have no choice but to buy EVs, whether they can afford them or not.” With the federal EV mandate repealed, California’s state policies, including its 2035 gas vehicle ban, stand out as a unilateral push by Sacramento to control what you drive, setting a precedent for states like New York, Washington, and Oregon that adopted similar rules. With gas prices already $1.47 above the national average, this hike could cost California drivers an extra $600-$1,000 yearly, hitting hardest those living paycheck to paycheck. Many advocates see this as a violation of market principles: consumers, not bureaucrats, should decide what fuels their vehicles.

Other States Feel the Heat: Will Gas Prices Follow California’s Lead?

The repeal of the federal EV mandate, which had aimed for 56% of new vehicle sales to be electric by 2032, and was removed by Congress, shifts the burden to states with their own EV policies. Roughly a dozen states, covering about 35% of the U.S. population, adopted California’s clean car rules, including its 2035 gas vehicle ban. States like New York, Washington, Oregon, and Massachusetts require increasing percentages of zero-emission vehicle sales, starting with 35% in 2026 and reaching 100% by 2035. Without federal backing, these states face pressure to either double down or scale back. New York, for instance, has invested $1.2 billion in EV charging infrastructure, but its high electricity costs and rural charging gaps mirror California’s challenges. Washington and Oregon, are reliant on California’s fuel supply, which could see gas price spikes of 10-20 cents per gallon due to refinery closures, though they lack clean fuel programs as aggressive as California’s plan.

Will these states hike gas prices too? Unlike California, none have announced plans mirroring the CARB’s 65-cent hike, but their clean car mandates could indirectly raise fuel costs. Plus supply and demand will push some states to raise prices. Other stats regulatory credit systems, similar to California’s, force fuel producers to buy credits for high-carbon fuels, costs often passed to consumers.

In New York, analysts estimate potential gas price increases of 10-15 cents per gallon by 2026 if EV adoption lags and carbon credit prices rise, this is expected based on the states demand for control. However, the absence of federal EV subsidies, like the $7,500 tax credit, will slow EV sales nationwide, prompting states to tighten fuel regulations to meet emissions goals, which will drive gas prices higher.

Critics argue these states are following California’s lead, prioritizing climate agendas over affordability, especially since the AAA survey shows 63% of Americans reject EVs due to cost, high insurance rates and infrastructure concerns. For now, California’s gas price hike remains the steepest, but its influence could push other states toward similar measures, squeezing drivers nationwide.

Consumer Resistance: AAA Survey Shows Pushback

Californians aren’t alone in their frustration, and the federal mandate’s repeal hasn’t eased their concerns. An AAA survey found 63% of U.S. adults are “unlikely” or “very unlikely” to buy an EV, citing high purchase prices (59%), battery repair costs (62%), and insufficient charging stations (56%). In California, where electricity costs are double the national average, charging an EV can be nearly as expensive as fueling a gas car. The program’s $162 billion cost through 2046, with $105 billion going to EV charging credits, benefits clean energy companies, often subsidized by taxpayers. Yet, with EV financing averaging $783 monthly, these perks favor wealthier households, leaving working families squeezed by both gas and electricity prices.

The oil refinery closures make things worse. Losing capacity could add 8.2-14 cents per gallon, and combined with the clean fuel program and a scheduled excise tax increase of 1.1-1.8 cents, total hikes could reach $0.55-$0.90 per gallon in 2025. This will ripple through supply chains, raising costs for groceries, manufacturing, and transportation.

Automakers Adapt: Balancing EVs, Hybrids, and Gas

While California’s regulators push EVs, the auto industry is taking a more market-driven approach that freedom-minded drivers can appreciate. With the federal EV mandate gone, manufacturers are focusing on consumer demand, investing in a mix of EVs, hybrids, and gas vehicles. Some are building new factories to produce EVs but are also expanding into hybrids by 2026, reflecting growing interest in fuel-efficient options that don’t rely on sparse charging infrastructure. Gas-powered vehicles remain popular in most markets, showing a commitment to diverse options. This balanced strategy ensures drivers have choices that fit their lives, not what state regulators dictate. By offering hybrids and gas vehicles alongside EVs, these manufacturers shield themselves from policy swings, like California’s clean fuel rules or potential tariff changes, while respecting consumer freedom.

The Bigger Picture: Climate Goals vs. Your Freedom

California regulators defend the clean fuel program, claiming it’s critical for California’s net-zero emissions goal by 2045, projecting $4.8 billion in clean fuel investments for disadvantaged communities and significant pollution reductions. But critics argue the benefits are overstated and overpriced. EVs produce 26% more tire particulate pollution than gas cars, and impacts peoples health and air, potentially offsetting their 12% carbon reduction over hybrids. With gas prices possibly hitting $8 per gallon by 2026, the goal of the program is to force drivers into EVs or public transit, even as electricity costs soar, making California the only state where gas might be cheaper than charging. There is also limited public transportation which could leave many stranded.

Many Californians are talking online about this being state coercion, not progress. The clean fuel program, combined with other state regulations mandating cleaner trucks and cars, creates a web that penalizes gas vehicles and subsidizes EVs, distorting the market. With the federal EV mandate repealed, California’s policies—and those of states like New York and Washington—stand out as aggressive attempts to control what you drive. Jones’ investigation into the regulators’ communications with the governor’s office aims to expose whether this is a deliberate push to eliminate gas cars without voter input. Assemblyman Tom Lackey warned, “Politicians will have to answer to their outraged constituents when gas prices jump yet again.”

What This Means for You

If you drive in California, Arizona, or Nevada—where California’s fuel supply impacts prices—prepare for a hit to your wallet. Gas could jump 65 cents per gallon by July 2025, potentially reaching $8 by 2026. Drivers in states like New York, Washington, or Oregon could see smaller increases, possibly 10-20 cents per gallon, as their clean car rules drive up fuel costs. Ask yourself: Can you afford an EV at $783 a month on average? Is charging reliable near you? If not, you’re among the 63% pushing back, and some manufacturers are keeping gas and hybrid options alive. But California’s unelected board, and similar regulators in other states, threaten your choices. A proposed bill could stop California’s hike, but it faces a tough fight in a legislature aligned with the governor.

Take Back the Wheel

California’s 65-cent gas price hike, and the ripple effects in states following its lead, is not just about fuel—it’s about who controls your choices. With the federal EV mandate gone, some state regulators are doubling down as if this never passed, pushing an EV agenda that could price you out of gas and they don’t really care. Will gas hit $8 a gallon in California, or will lawmakers halt this mandate? Will other states follow with their own hikes? Share this article and drop your thoughts in the comments. Are you ready to pay more at the pump, or are you fighting for the freedom to drive what you choose? Don’t let bureaucrats take the wheel—get in the driver’s seat and make your voice heard!

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Lauren Fix is an automotive expert and journalist covering industry trends, policy changes, and their impact on drivers nationwide.

Follow her on X @LaurenFix for the latest car news and insights.